It's hard to say, because The Doctor is scared of the Toymaker both as his first incarnation and in his fourteenth incarnation, but the Toymaker limited by games, while Q is not that limited, however I believe the Toymaker may outsmart Q since Q is not that bright, not even as a human without powers, but Toymaker is not really known for being smart, especially against the Doctor. If the Toymaker isn't limited by using games he would have better chances.